No Ordinary Disruption

technology, technology evolution, evolution of technology

Between 1980 and 2010, 1.1 billion adults entered the twenty- to sixty-four-year-old age bracket and joined the world’s labor force. But due to a host of demographic factors, global labor force growth will fall by nearly one-third by 2030. At the same time, technology is roiling labor markets as never before. Computers, which historically replaced manual and clerical workers, such as stenographers and bank tellers, are now beginning to replace knowledge and skilled workers, like journalists and stock analysts. By 2025, in fact, computers could do the work of 140 million knowledge workers, and robots could do the work of another 75 million people. And yet there will still be high demand for skilled positions in engineering, software development, and health care. Four out of ten respondents in a McKinsey survey reported that they currently couldn’t find the talent they need. This means that we’re likely to see a strange dichotomy. By 2020, on our current trajectory, businesses could be short of 85 million workers with college degrees or vocational training; at the same time, 95 million lower-skilled workers could be unemployed.

No Ordinary Disruption: The Four Global Forces Breaking All the Trends by Richard Dobbs, James Manyika, Jonathan Woetzel

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